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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-T.Lewis to NO 26 for 6 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP