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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 10 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model