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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to NYG 33, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.03 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 90, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 47, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP