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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model