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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to LA 13, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model