Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to LA 21, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-T.Austin to LA 21 for no gain (23-S.Terrell). PENALTY on LA-46-C.Harkey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.29 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model