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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 30 yards to SEA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP