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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP