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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 8-A.Lee punts 37 yards to SF 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model