Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

(1:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to CAR 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model