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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to SF 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-26-D.Worley.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model