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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model