Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

(13:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to CAR 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 31 for 16 yards (89-V.McDonald; 29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model