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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model