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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 4-P.Dawson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model