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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 34 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model