Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Carolina Panthers 43

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep right intended for 82-T.Smith INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at SF 43. 24-J.Bradberry to SF 27 for 16 yards (82-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP