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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 28 yards to CAR 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model