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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to BAL 37 for 42 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model