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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model