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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-R.Greene to JAX 19 for 6 yards (36-T.Young).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP