Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-16-D.Robinson at BAL 39. 16-D.Robinson to BAL 39 for no gain (14-D.Hester).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model