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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP