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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-B.Urban), Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman, RECOVERED by BAL-54-Z.Orr at BAL 34. 54-Z.Orr to BAL 43 for 9 yards (93-T.Alualu).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.61 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model