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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 89-S.Smith to JAX 44 for 5 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.32 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model