Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 91

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CIN 46, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 3 yards (50-Z.Anderson). FUMBLES (50-Z.Anderson), RECOVERED by DEN-33-S.Keo at CIN 46. 33-S.Keo to CIN 46 for no gain (86-J.Wright). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.61 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model