Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 16

(13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 25 for 11 yards (26-J.Shaw; 86-J.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model