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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model