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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 36

Denver Broncos 29 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP