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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 11

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Denver Broncos 29

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP