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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP