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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 21 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP