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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 25

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model