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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 10 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-A.Boldin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model