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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 32

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.71 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model