Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 84

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 34

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to GB 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Davis to DET 31 for 34 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 48-D.Muhlbach). Penalty on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model