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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 34 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to DET 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-A.Roberts to DET 38 for 15 yards (83-J.Janis, 50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model