Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 79

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

(:41) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model