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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model