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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 10

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model