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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to KC 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 37 for 19 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP