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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to NYJ 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.67 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model