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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.44 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model