4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 4-J.Berry punts 63 yards to PHI 6, Center-60-G.Warren. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 14 yards (29-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model