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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 15 for 3 yards (42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model