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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 84-A.Brown (27-M.Jenkins). Penalty on PIT-66-D.DeCastro, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model