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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(:47) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to PHI 18, Center-60-G.Warren. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 2 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model