4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-13-J.Huff.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model