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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to PHI 27 for 5 yards (31-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP