Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(:36) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.76 EP
49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -1.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model